2012 Football Recruiting Thread

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
How are we not defining Bain and Bailey as busts?
+1

You can't always predict a head case, but if they didn't see the field you have to suggest it's a bust. The amount of time that they had to spend in recruiting alone means they didn't get value for their efforts.
Why? Kids are going to fail out of school or turn into fuckups. That doesn't mean they weren't good recruits.
 

AZmessDAWG

Loved and Defended The Criminal Until the Bitter End
Joined
Sep 21, 2009
Messages
39,941
Reaction score
-7,155
Over/Under on the number of posts it takes for you two to realize you agree but have different definitions for recruiting bust?
 

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
Over/Under on the number of posts it takes for you two to realize you agree but have different definitions for recruiting bust?
Over/under on the number of posts it takes you to realize everyone hates you and wishes you'd stop posting here?
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
9,669
Reaction score
-464
Two Star Recruit has about the same probability becoming a 1st Round Draft Choice as a Five Star Recruit.

All-around three stars have the best chance at being drafted.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204740904577197254097066544.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_Sports_RightTopCarousel_1

This isn't to suggest that the recruiting services are getting it wrong. Rather, this dynamic is a function of how large a pool the three-star-and-below players are. There are typically only around 30 five-star prospects per year and 300 to 400 four-star ones, compared to 1,000-plus three-star recruits and at least as many lesser ones. In other words, the top recruits face a ton of competition.
.
The definition of a "Five-Star" Recruit: "The five-star label, which is only bestowed upon a few dozen players a year, is the mark of a future first-round NFL draft pick."

17-18% predictability is really good.
 

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
Two Star Recruit has about the same probability becoming a 1st Round Draft Choice as a Five Star Recruit.

All-around three stars have the best chance at being drafted.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204740904577197254097066544.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_Sports_RightTopCarousel_1

This isn't to suggest that the recruiting services are getting it wrong. Rather, this dynamic is a function of how large a pool the three-star-and-below players are. There are typically only around 30 five-star prospects per year and 300 to 400 four-star ones, compared to 1,000-plus three-star recruits and at least as many lesser ones. In other words, the top recruits face a ton of competition.
.
The definition of a "Five-Star" Recruit: "The five-star label, which is only bestowed upon a few dozen players a year, is the mark of a future first-round NFL draft pick."

17-18% predictability is really good.
:rotf:
 

AZmessDAWG

Loved and Defended The Criminal Until the Bitter End
Joined
Sep 21, 2009
Messages
39,941
Reaction score
-7,155
Over/Under on the number of posts it takes for you two to realize you agree but have different definitions for recruiting bust?
Over/under on the number of posts it takes you to realize everyone hates you and wishes you'd stop posting here?
Over/Under on the number of posts it takes for you to come up with an original thought?
 

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
Using the approximate figures in that article, a recruit has the following likelihood of going in the first round:

5: 18.8%
4: 3.8%
3: 0.8%
2: 0.3%

In the top 2 rounds:

5: 30.1
4: 6.8
3: 1.8
2: 0.8

Of being drafted:


5: 51.4
4: 15.9
3: 6.8
2: 5.2

A 5* recruit is 25 times as likely to be drafted in the first round as a three star recruit.
 

BBK

THE GRINGOOOOO
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
83,720
Reaction score
14,235
Thanks for doing that, mikey.
 
Joined
Aug 24, 2007
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
-1,440
'05 - Bailey, Bain, JC, Doering, Eubanks, Kanellis, Moeaki, Richardson
Holy shitty 4 stars, Batman.
Really?

I read: Bad grades, head case, sucked, sucked, starter, injured, starter, starter.

JC and Doering were the only real "busts" in there.
Really, because I read sucked, sucked, sucked, sucked, average, average, great, above average.

That's 50% that sucked, 25% average. Out of those 8 there was an above average player that spent much of his career injured and one great player that spent most of his career injured. All things considered, that is a shitty group of 4 stars.
 

Hawkeye_Pierce

May Have Fondled a Tranny
Joined
Mar 5, 2010
Messages
11,828
Reaction score
-1,164
Holy shitty 4 stars, Batman.
Really?

I read: Bad grades, head case, sucked, sucked, starter, injured, starter, starter.

JC and Doering were the only real "busts" in there.
Really, because I read sucked, sucked, sucked, sucked, average, average, great, above average.

That's 50% that sucked, 25% average. Out of those 8 there was an above average player that spent much of his career injured and one great player that spent most of his career injured. All things considered, that is a shitty group of 4 stars.
I've got to agree. I think if a kid is a headcase and washes out, he was a shitty recruit regardless.

Looking at Iowa's 4-star recruits from 03 - 07, there were 20 and 6 of them I think were drafted (Bulaga, Young, Jones, Moeaki, Clayborn, and Ballard) which is a 30% clip. This would actually be above the average which is 15.9%. I'd say Iowa has done pretty well, overall, in terms of 4-star recruits. We just tend to focus on the shitty ones because other than 2005, we only get 3-4 a year if we're lucky.

I'm far too lazy to look it up but I wonder what the success rate is for 2-stars at Iowa. I'd bet that for every Sanders or Gallery you have 30 guys that hardly see the field much less make it to the NFL. But try telling that to the retards on the other sites.
 

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
Holy shitty 4 stars, Batman.
Really?

I read: Bad grades, head case, sucked, sucked, starter, injured, starter, starter.

JC and Doering were the only real "busts" in there.
Really, because I read sucked, sucked, sucked, sucked, average, average, great, above average.

That's 50% that sucked, 25% average. Out of those 8 there was an above average player that spent much of his career injured and one great player that spent most of his career injured. All things considered, that is a shitty group of 4 stars.
How on earth would you have any idea that a guy like Bailey sucked? This post is silly.
 

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
Looking at Iowa's 4-star recruits from 03 - 07, there were 20 and 6 of them I think were drafted (Bulaga, Young, Jones, Moeaki, Clayborn, and Ballard) which is a 30% clip. This would actually be above the average which is 15.9%. I'd say Iowa has done pretty well, overall, in terms of 4-star recruits. We just tend to focus on the shitty ones because other than 2005, we only get 3-4 a year if we're lucky.
This is 100% true. Our success rate is no lower with high star recruits than any other school, despite what RobertGalleryBobSanders(!) startards would have you believe.
 
Joined
Aug 24, 2007
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
-1,440
Really?

I read: Bad grades, head case, sucked, sucked, starter, injured, starter, starter.

JC and Doering were the only real "busts" in there.
Really, because I read sucked, sucked, sucked, sucked, average, average, great, above average.

That's 50% that sucked, 25% average. Out of those 8 there was an above average player that spent much of his career injured and one great player that spent most of his career injured. All things considered, that is a shitty group of 4 stars.
How on earth would you have any idea that a guy like Bailey sucked? This post is silly.
How the fuck would you know he didn't. The fucker never played, anywhere. So, he didn't suck because we were never able to assess whether he sucked or not. Are you a high functioning retard, or just a fucking retard?
 

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
Really, because I read sucked, sucked, sucked, sucked, average, average, great, above average.

That's 50% that sucked, 25% average. Out of those 8 there was an above average player that spent much of his career injured and one great player that spent most of his career injured. All things considered, that is a shitty group of 4 stars.
How on earth would you have any idea that a guy like Bailey sucked? This post is silly.
How the fuck would you know he didn't. The fucker never played, anywhere. So, he didn't suck because we were never able to assess whether he sucked or not. Are you a high functioning retard, or just a fucking retard?
I'm not saying he didn't suck. I'm saying you can't say that his 4 star rating was wrong* because who the fuck knows because he never qualified for D1. Reading is hard.

*Unless you think 4 stars means "not an academic retard" who might fail out of your school. In which case, LOL.
 

CamelTones

Has Shoved A Live Shrimp Up His Ass
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
25,652
Reaction score
4,958
Hawkeye_Pierce said:
I've got to agree. I think if a kid is a headcase and washes out, he was a shitty recruit regardless.

Looking at Iowa's 4-star recruits from 03 - 07, there were 20 and 6 of them I think were drafted (Bulaga, Young, Jones, Moeaki, Clayborn, and Ballard) which is a 30% clip. This would actually be above the average which is 15.9%. I'd say Iowa has done pretty well, overall, in terms of 4-star recruits. We just tend to focus on the shitty ones because other than 2005, we only get 3-4 a year if we're lucky.

I'm far too lazy to look it up but I wonder what the success rate is for 2-stars at Iowa. I'd bet that for every Sanders or Gallery you have 30 guys that hardly see the field much less make it to the NFL. But try telling that to the retards on the other sites.
Exactly, for every good 2* there are 5 Khaliq Price, Dana Brown, and Martin Hopkins.
 

Mrs. G

Dresses this way for her friends
Joined
Dec 28, 2007
Messages
10,875
Reaction score
-56
Geez. Enough with the bickering. Please see thread title.
 

foxhawks

Doesn't wash his butthole last
Joined
Apr 28, 2011
Messages
13,956
Reaction score
-17,996
In back to back tweets on my timeline...one says Kozan to Michigan...the other says Auburn.
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
2,215
Reaction score
-52
How are we not defining Bain and Bailey as busts?
+1

You can't always predict a head case, but if they didn't see the field you have to suggest it's a bust. The amount of time that they had to spend in recruiting alone means they didn't get value for their efforts.
Why? Kids are going to fail out of school or turn into fuckups. That doesn't mean they weren't good recruits.
Over/Under on the number of posts it takes for you two to realize you agree but have different definitions for recruiting bust?
I wish I spent enough time on here to have an e-fight. :(
 

foxhawks

Doesn't wash his butthole last
Joined
Apr 28, 2011
Messages
13,956
Reaction score
-17,996
+1

You can't always predict a head case, but if they didn't see the field you have to suggest it's a bust. The amount of time that they had to spend in recruiting alone means they didn't get value for their efforts.
Why? Kids are going to fail out of school or turn into fuckups. That doesn't mean they weren't good recruits.
Over/Under on the number of posts it takes for you two to realize you agree but have different definitions for recruiting bust?
I wish I spent enough time on here to have an e-fight. :(
Shut the fuck up!!!
 

AZmessDAWG

Loved and Defended The Criminal Until the Bitter End
Joined
Sep 21, 2009
Messages
39,941
Reaction score
-7,155

brantshawks

Nebrantska Fan
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
76,472
Reaction score
-3,208
Kozan to Michigan is what I just read. Weren't they at their scholly limit?
 
Joined
Jul 31, 2009
Messages
34
Reaction score
-2
I just had a thought relating to the rumor going around about Reese Morgan (potentially retiring) and the impact of that on recruiting Kozan. Let me just say again, the Coach Morgan thing is just a rumor and I have absolutely no idea if there is any truth to it... BUT, for a moment let's assume that is true.

If Kozan were to have said to the coaches that he heard this rumor and it's causing him concern, and KF REALLY doesn't want the future OL coach to be leaked prior to the press conf on Wed, perhaps they would have asked Kozan to just hold off on signing a LOI until he's had a chance to learn who the new coach is going to be. That would explain why he is taking so long to make a decision...
 
Last edited:

MikeyJoe

has a big head
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
72,818
Reaction score
8,350
I have a friend who lives in CO who knows Kozan (or friend of a friend or whatever) who said that Kozan decomitted because of some dream he had. I have no idea if it's true, but LOL if it is.
 
Top